Breaking RSA-2048: Why the Estimate Fell From 20 Million to 10,000 Qubits
In 2019 the reference estimate for breaking RSA-2048 was 20 million noisy qubits running for eight hours. In March 2026 a Caltech and Oratomic team put the figure at 10,000.…
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In 2019 the reference estimate for breaking RSA-2048 was 20 million noisy qubits running for eight hours. In March 2026 a Caltech and Oratomic team put the figure at 10,000.…
Between early 2025 and mid-2026, quantum processors have gone from simulating toy models of particle physics to watching confinement, string breaking, and hadron scattering play out in real time. These…
Error correction crossed the threshold, a quantum advantage became verifiable, and the cost of breaking RSA fell — on maths, not hardware. What actually changed, and what each result promises.
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